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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It frequently serves as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the biggest improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet this year's race is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions declining and longtime also-rans rising in unison. Under an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and fun year, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still